TMT Steel Industry Trends in India: 2026 and Beyond

India's Steel Sector at a Turning Point

India became the world's second-largest steel producer in 2018, overtaking Japan. By 2030, the government targets 300 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) capacity from the current ~170 MTPA. For the TMT segment — which serves residential and infrastructure construction — several structural trends will reshape how steel is produced, traded, and quality-assured over the next 5 years.

Trend 1: Capacity Expansion Pressuring Prices Downward

JSW Steel, TATA Steel, and AMNS India (ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel) have announced combined capacity additions of 40+ MTPA by 2028. SAIL is modernising its Bokaro and Bhilai plants. More supply, holding demand growth constant, will gradually compress TMT margins and potentially bring retail prices down by 5–8% in real terms by 2028.

Trend 2: Green Steel and Low-Carbon TMT

India's steel sector commits to net-zero carbon by 2070, but meaningful steps are beginning now. JSW's green hydrogen pilot at Vijayanagar, TATA's electric steelmaking investments at Jamshedpur, and SAIL's energy efficiency programmes are all underway. "Green TMT" — bars produced with significantly lower carbon intensity — will command a small premium (estimated 2–5%) from large developers and government infrastructure projects with ESG mandates.

Trend 3: BIS Enforcement Tightening

The Bureau of Indian Standards has significantly increased its surveillance and enforcement activities since 2023. Random market sampling, surprise dealer inspections, and product seizures of non-compliant bars have increased substantially. In 2025, BIS cancelled 140+ TMT licences for non-compliance — the highest in a decade. This is squeezing out low-quality producers and shifting buyers toward verified brands.

Trend 4: Digital Trade Platforms Replacing Informal Channels

B2B steel e-commerce platforms — of which CoreJoint is a part — are digitalising what was historically an entirely relationship-driven, opaque market. Price transparency, verified dealer networks, and digital procurement are reducing information asymmetry. Industry estimates suggest that 15–20% of contractor-level TMT procurement will be digitally influenced by 2027, up from under 3% in 2022.

Trend 5: Shift Toward Branded and Certified Steel in Tier 2 Cities

Rising homeowner awareness, stricter municipal building plan approval requirements (which increasingly ask for structural engineer certificates), and BIS enforcement are driving Tier 2 and Tier 3 city buyers toward branded, BIS-certified TMT. The unbranded segment — dominant in small towns a decade ago — is shrinking by 8–10% per year in market share terms.

Trend 6: Higher Strength Grades Gaining Share

Fe550D is gradually displacing Fe500D in medium-rise residential and commercial construction. The 10% material savings (by weight) from using higher-strength steel is increasingly compelling for developers managing costs on 5-storey+ buildings. Fe500D still dominates the residential ground+1 segment but its share of the total branded market has declined from 82% to 74% over 2020–2025.

What This Means for Buyers

• Buy from BIS-certified, digitally verified dealers — unbranded risk is higher now that enforcement is tighter.
• Ask about Fe550D for multi-storey projects — the weight savings may offset the premium.
• Expect gradual price pressure downward over 2026–2028 as new capacity comes online.
• Watch for "green TMT" products from major brands by 2027 — relevant for ESG-reporting developers.